Small Data, Big Disruptions by Martin Schwirn

Author:Martin Schwirn
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9781632657435
Publisher: Red Wheel Weiser

Narratives Build Worlds

Forecasts limit your view. Big data looks at past information. Uncertainty does not afford a single perspective on the future. What is needed are worlds that allow you to roam freely to contemplate your options.

Ralston and Wilson provide the rationale: “While traditional responses—improved forecasting capability, better monitoring, greater flexibility—are needed and commendable, they are inadequate to meet the full extent of this challenge. What is needed is a system geared to speculate not only about ‘the future,’ but about a range of possible futures.”23 What is needed is FIPI that lets you look at developing patterns and narratives to draw implications across the wide range of possibilities that the future offers from today's point of view.

Dufva looks at foresight, including scanning, “as a systematic practice for exploring futures: foresight is a process where a set of methods is used in a planned and rigorous manner (systematically) in order to create futures knowledge.”24 Crucially, futures knowledge does not represent “deterministic forecasts.” Futures knowledge is a set of “justifiable contingent plausibilities.” You want justifiable narratives to make sure that you are credible. Ground your thinking in realities; let real events and developments be your starting point in FIPI. Make narratives contingent; present dynamics to tell a story that captures decision-makers' imagination. Finally, do not fall into the trap to tell stories that veer off into worlds that listeners cannot follow. At the same time, don't attach likelihoods. “Make It Plausible, Not Probable”—Oxford University scholars Angela Wilkinson and Roland Kupers highlight the mantra of anticipating futures.25 Whereas probability creates expectations, plausibility builds preparedness.

Traditional forecasts prevent comprehensive decision making. They present a very narrow look at the future. They limit your choice by showing you a narrow pathway. They lead you toward dangerous territory by excluding uncertainty. Narratives of potential futures, in contrast, open the corporate mind to vast opportunities and a virtually unlimited number of strategic alternatives that could find use. The challenge is obvious. You will see very different worlds that will require different responses to stay ahead of the game. But such narratives reflect reality; they present the future as it is—uncertain. But looking at alternative futures allows you to develop organizational intelligence. After all—according to American author F. Scott Fitzgerald—“the test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.” Scanning is the support to retain the ability to function.

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